Climate whiplash events on the rise

Extreme weather events are escalating in severity and frequency, partly driven by anthropogenic climate change. Events termed “climate whiplash” – rapid oscillations between extremes of wet and dry conditions – are becoming increasingly common, with devastating impacts on societies, economies and ecosystems. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires epitomise this trend, with an unparalleled combination of intense fuel loads, extreme aridity and hurricane-force winds triggering the most destructive wildfire episode in the region’s history.  (The Guardian) 

Why does this matter? Socially, the fires have claimed 25 lives, displaced over 200,000 residents and obliterated historical landmarks and homes, leaving communities grappling with profound losses. Economically, they have inflicted billions in damages, with insurance claims, reconstruction costs and business interruptions adding to the financial burden. Environmentally, the fires have decimated thousands of hectares of flora and fauna, with long-term implications for biodiversity and ecological resilience. These impacts not only demand an urgent policy response but also require industries to act as key partners in mitigating the risks of extreme weather events.

The implications of these wildfires for Rio Tinto are profound. Rio operates in several areas with wildfire risks including in British Columbia, Western Australia and Southern California. A repeat of such a wildfire could severely disrupt mining operations, particularly those near arid or forested regions. For instance, access to critical supply chains and transport networks might be curtailed, as seen in Los Angeles where infrastructure was paralysed. Furthermore, reputational risks are significant – stakeholders increasingly expect companies to demonstrate environmental stewardship. 

A rapid analysis study by the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) into the wildfires highlights the interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors. It found that climate change was linked to approximately one-quarter of the extreme fuel aridity preceding the fires. Wet winters between 2022 and 2024 spurred abundant vegetation growth, only for an unprecedentedly dry 2024 autumn to desiccate this biomass. The failure of seasonal rains, coupled with record-breaking heat and a hurricane-strength Santa Ana wind event, created a perfect storm for wildfire proliferation.  

While the Los Angeles wildfires dominate headlines, they are part of a broader global trend of intensifying extreme weather. Research shows that 74% of extreme events, including heatwaves, floods and droughts, have been made more likely or severe due to climate change. For instance, the devastating 2019-2020 Australian bushfires were found to be at more sever and/or more likely due to human-induced weather extremes. These trends demand coordinated global action. Strategies such as aggressive wildfire suppression during extreme weather, urban planning to reduce vulnerability and reforestation projects can mitigate risks. Additionally, sectors such as mining can adapt by investing in fire-resistant infrastructure and enhancing supply chain resilience. 

The burgeoning field of climate attribution studies is revolutionising our understanding of extreme weather. These studies utilise detailed computer models to simulate scenarios with and without human-induced warming, enabling researchers to quantify the role of climate change in specific events. For example, the January 2025 wildfires were analysed using probabilistic models, revealing that high summer temperatures attributable to climate change were a significant driver of fuel desiccation. Such methodologies are increasingly informing policy and litigation, underscoring their importance for industries seeking to navigate climate risks. 

The fight against wildfires and extreme weather necessitates a multi-pronged approach. Advances in climate technology, such as satellite monitoring and predictive analytics, can enhance early warning systems. Sustainable land management practices, including controlled burns and ecosystem restoration, are critical for reducing fire severity. For industries such as Rio Tinto, integrating these technologies into operational frameworks will be pivotal. Partnerships with scientific institutions to monitor regional vulnerabilities and proactive community engagement in affected areas will also be key to long-term resilience. 

As the impacts of climate change intensify, the need for swift and comprehensive action has never been clearer. The January 2025 wildfires serve as a sobering reminder of what is at stake. By harnessing cutting-edge science, investing in adaptation and committing to sustainable practices, stakeholders can help mitigate the risks and costs of a warming world.