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The EU has resisted China’s request for a joint climate declaration at an upcoming summit between President Xi Jingping and Ursula von der Leyen President of the European Commission, insisting Beijing must first commit to deeper emissions cuts, reported Alice Hancock in the Financial Times. Despite China’s advances in clean energy, it remains the largest global emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The EU recently proposed a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 but faces internal pressure to slow its green agenda. Analysts warn that failure to engage China could weaken global climate leadership ahead of COP30 in Brazil, especially with the US retreating from the Paris Agreement under President Trump. A joint EU-China climate commitment remains critical. (Financial Times)
Why does this matter? China’s climate goals will fundamentally change the planet’s warming trajectory. The country is an international leader in clean energy, despite paradoxically also releasing the greatest amount of GHGs.
While President Xi pledges towards continued action, analysts expect a modest emissions cut of 10%-15%, far below the 30% needed to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets. Campaigners urge China to show a “spirit” of ambition, even if numeric targets fall short. Economic uncertainty, energy security fears and coal dependence complicate progress. However, sectoral goals in renewables and electrification could drive investment. Experts argue international engagement still holds value and that stronger targets could position China to lead the global energy transition.
For Rio Tinto and other industry players, the standards set on the international climate stage will trickle down to affect their operations. More ambitious carbon limits will likely boost the renewable energy sector, therefore creating more demand for critical minerals that Rio is well placed to meet.
There are reasons for optimism. In mid-June, at the first UK-China ministerial climate dialogue in London, Huang Runqiu, head of China’s Ministry of Economy and Environment (MEE), met Ed Miliband, the UK’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and Rachel Kyte, UK’s Special Representative for Climate. After the meeting, the UK and China signed a new memorandum of understanding aimed at boosting cooperation on emissions reduction, methane controls and climate finance.
UK officials positioned the agreement as a mechanism to nudge China toward more ambitious climate goals. Chatham House argues that UK-China climate cooperation offers a strategic opportunity to preserve international momentum. Drawing on the UK’s strengths in carbon budgeting and China’s success in scaling low-carbon technologies, the collaboration could insulate climate action from wider political tensions and unlock mutual benefits.
Independently of Western actors, China provided an estimated $3bn annually in climate-related finance to developing countries from 2015 to 2021. Thus, positioning itself as the sixth-largest contributor globally, despite having no formal obligation under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, since 2018, Chinese contributions have declined, primarily due to reductions in bilateral lending – almost all of which came in the form of loans, with 40% directed to Africa. Governance of this finance remains fragmented across a dozen agencies, limiting efficiency and transparency. To play a more strategic global role, China should stabilise funding, improve data transparency and better balance support between mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Meanwhile, on the European side of the equation, the EU has proposed a 90% emissions cut by 2040 but included controversial carbon credits. The announcement prompted concerns over rising populist resistance and internal divisions. Climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra stressed that the EU, responsible for just 6% of global emissions, cannot act alone and urged greater ambition from major emitters, including China. As the US retreats, the EU's credibility and influence depend on whether it can rally others without diluting its own commitments.
While China has scaled up renewable energy deployment and signalled a future cap on emissions via its carbon trading scheme more needs to be done. Without a more aggressive stance on coal phase-out and absolute emissions reductions, China risks undermining global climate efforts. As the US steps back from climate leadership, strategic cooperation of the UK and EU with China is critical to sustaining international climate momentum ahead of COP30.