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The European Commission has confirmed that the EU is on track to cut net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 54% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Revised National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) support the bloc’s 55% emissions reduction goal and a 42.5% renewable energy share. Emissions are already down 37%, while the economy has grown nearly 70%. Initiatives such as the Clean Industrial Deal and Affordable Energy Action Plan are supporting decarbonisation and innovation. The Commission will continue helping Member States in implementing NECPs and has urged Belgium, Estonia and Poland – which have yet to submit final plans – to act swiftly. (Energy Monitor)
Why does this matter? The driving force behind the falling emissions is the energy sector, with the Commission highlighting that 24% of the EU’s energy was generated using renewables in 2023. It also projects that the bloc will add a record 89 GW of new renewable capacity in 2025 – comprising 70 GW of solar and 19 GW of wind – surpassing 2024’s totals of 65.5 GW and 12.9 GW, respectively. While this aligns with the need to install 70 GW of new solar capacity annually to meet the 2030 targets, headwinds such as long permitting delays and France’s proposal to reduce feed-in tariffs for rooftop solar panels may impede progress.
Member states are performing less well in energy efficiency, with the Commission pointing out that the aggregated NCEPs indicate a projected energy consumption reduction of 8.1% by 2030 – well below the EU’s target of 11.7%. So far, 15 countries have increased their energy efficiency goals compared to their draft plans and nine, including Austria and Ireland, have set targets that exceed their own projected outcomes.
Other persistent gaps remain. For example, sectors under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation – covering domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste – are projected to reduce emissions by 38% by 2030, falling below the 40% target. These sectors account for almost 60% of the bloc’s domestic emissions. It was noted that updated NECPs place a stronger focus on decarbonising transport and buildings compared to earlier drafts. Meanwhile, the land sector remains off track, failing to meet its goal of removing an extra 42 million mt of CO2 by 2030. Carbon storage in land has declined in recent years and is unlikely to recover.
The next steps towards the EU’s 2050 net zero goal are set to be unveiled on 2 July after months of delays. The Commission’s 2040 targets will include setting an ambitious goal to reduce emissions by 90% from 1990 levels. However, to ease mounting political resistance, the proposal will include flexibilities, such as allowing countries to meet part of the target through international carbon credits or setting softer obligations for domestic industries. Already, opinion is divided, with countries such as Finland and Denmark supporting the 90% target and others, including Italy and the Czech Republic, opposed.
The proposal to allow carbon credits from developing countries has been heavily criticised by EU science advisors. The board warns that outsourcing emissions cuts would undermine domestic climate action and competitiveness. Their report stresses that the 90% target must be met domestically and insists that relying on credits risks may weaken environmental integrity and delay the green transition. To maintain credibility and secure political backing, Brussels may be forced to tighten the 2040 targets – or risk eroding trust in the EU’s climate leadership.