Hurricane forecasts are improving, but climate change presents modelling challenges

Recent advances in hurricane forecasting have significantly improved predictions of rapid storm intensification, though challenges remain due to the fact that climate change is fuelling such storms. Hurricane Beryl recently intensified from a tropical cyclone to a major hurricane in less than a day, causing fatalities and extensive damage in Grenada and power outages for 300,000 homes and businesses across the Caribbean, Latin America, and the US Gulf Coast. Despite more accurate models like NOAA's SDCON-RII, which accurately forecast four of Beryl's nine rapid intensification events at least 24 hours in advance, limitations persist. Rising ocean temperatures may enhance future forecasting accuracy as they will increase available datasets. (New Scientist)