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Reforestation is an effective strategy to combat climate change and biodiversity loss when managed well. Recent studies suggest the mitigation “potential” of newly planted trees is up to 10bn mt (GtCO2) annually, greater than the US’ yearly emissions. A new paper published in Nature Communications aims to improve the accuracy of reforestation potential estimates. The authors accounted for multiple factors such as providing ecosystem services and minimising social conflicts and developed global maps at several scales. Their new estimated net mitigation potential of reforestation is 71% lower than previous estimates. They found 195 million ha is available, with the potential to capture 2,225 TgCO2e per year. (Carbon Brief)
Why does this matter? Mining activities are a key driver of global forest loss. Since 2000, growing demand for coal, iron and industrial materials has increased mining by 52%. Studies have shown that mining is increasingly encroaching on forested land, particularly in tropical primary rainforests and protected areas. Between 2001 and 2020, almost 1.4 million ha of trees were lost due to mining and related activities. Managing mining operations better and supporting sustainable reforestation initiatives is urgent.
Being implicated in deforestation can pose a financial risk as well as reputational to large organisations, in April 2024, the ethics adviser to Norway’s sovereign wealth fund raised concerns about the environmental impact of Rio Tinto’s bauxite mine in Brazil. There was speculation as to the adviser’s potential divestment from the company. Since then, Rio Tinto has made $16m commitment to the Makira Natural Park anti deforestation project in Madagascar, hence reforestation potential is of relevance to the organisation’s ESG interests. The scheme is part of the global Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) framework developed by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
To improve the accuracy of reforestation estimates, the study authors reviewed 89 existing maps and developed a new framework using conservative criteria. Forest potential was defined as land with at least 60% tree cover capacity, excluding savannas and frequently burned areas. The analysis utilised refined high-resolution land use data (10-30 m),adding safeguards such as excluding croplands, peatlands and areas with negative albedo effects.
Eight scenarios were mapped to reflect different priorities, including biodiversity, social safeguards and policy alignment, providing decision-makers with more realistic, equitable and targeted reforestation opportunities. Of the 195 million ha identified as viable reforestation area, 83% of opportunities occur near to existing forests and 81% lie in places where there is low predicted conflict with rural livelihoods.
An interactive tool linked to this paper is the Global Reforestation Hub from which users can explore an array of reforestation options for the identified areas. Countries within the tropical climate zone have many of the highest reforestation opportunities for climate mitigation such as Indonesia with up to 7.8 million ha, the Democratic Republic of the Congo with up to 5.1 million ha and Brazil with up to 32 million ha. Temperate countries, including France (3.3 million ha) and the US (19.8 million ha), could also make important climate mitigation contributions.
While not a silver bullet, tree planting remains one of the most cost-effective and scalable carbon removal strategies – particularly when guided by strong regulations and tailored to local ecological and social conditions. With the right regulatory safeguards in place, reforestation can deliver significant climate, biodiversity and community benefits. As COP30 approaches in Brazil, the world’s custodian for the Amazon rainforest, forest-based solutions are expected to be a major focus. The summit offers a crucial opportunity to scale up investment in sustainable land use and restoration efforts.