World must prepare for escalating drought risk: report 

The economic and humanitarian impacts of droughts are rising rapidly, according to a UN-backed report. It warns that the cost of a typical drought episode is now at least twice as high as it was in 2000 and is likely to double again by 2035. The report notes that over 90 million people in Eastern and Southern Africa face extreme hunger, and Morocco saw water demand exceed supply by 57% in January 2024. Spain, Morocco and Turkey have experienced severe disruptions to water, food and energy systems. The report stresses that no country can afford complacency as climate-driven drought intensifies across multiple global hotspots. (edie) 

Why does this matter?  The report – prepared by the US National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), in collaboration with the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) – warns that some of the most extensive and destructive droughts in recorded history have occurred since 2023. Report co-author and NDMC director described the situation as a “slow-moving global catastrophe”, adding that the findings demonstrate the need to systematically monitor the effect that drought has on human life and ecosystems.  

The impacts of drought suprsede regional impacts, they also disrupt global supply chains, particularly in the production and distribution of food products. For example, after two years of drought and a record heatwave, Spain’s olive crop had diminished by 50%, resulting in a doubling of olive oil prices by September 2023. Similarly, dry conditions in Southeast Asia in 2023-2024 disrupted the production and supply of key crops, such as coffee, rice and sugar. Meanwhile, water in the Panama Canal dropped to such low levels in October 2023 and January 2024 that the number of ships able to pass was cut from 38 to 24 per day, disrupting global trade considerably.  

The mining industry is a major contributor to drought risk due to its heavy reliance on water for ore extraction, mineral processing, dust control and tailing management. Rio Tinto takes the issue seriously and has been disclosing its annual water usage since 2023. Additionally, it uses the World Resources Institute’s 2030 water stress projections to identify operational catchments that present the greatest concern. Earlier this year, the firm partnered with the Western Australian Government to deliver a seawater desalination plant in the Pilbara. Once operational in 2026, it will provide four billion litres of water annually for local communities and industry and significantly reduce abstraction from the Bungaroo borefield.  

Conversely, drought also poses a threat to mining operations. A 2024 report by PWC indicates that around 70% of critical materials needed for the clean energy transition, such as copper, cobalt and lithium, could face drought exposure by 2050. Up to 60% of vital metals, including iron, bauxite and zinc are also vulnerable. Production is limited to just a few countries, placing supply chains under pressure. For example, just five mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo produced over half of the global cobalt in 2020. Industry must start preparing now to overcome these future challenges. 

Beyond supply chain and economic concerns are health and social risks. The UN-backed report highlighted that women and girls are disproportionately affected by drought, alongside the elderly, subsistence farmers, pastoralists and those with chronic illness. Health threats include dehydration, acute malnutrition, exposure to polluted water and outbreaks of cholera. It also drew attention to a rise in forced marriages in Eastern Africa with families turning to dowries as a means of survival and mass school dropouts in Zimbabwe driven by hunger, rising costs and poor sanitation for girls. The devastating impact on wildlife must also not be ignored.  

The world is facing an escalating water crisis, with demand for freshwater likely to exceed supply by 40% by 2030, meaning urgent investment is needed for drought preparedness. This should include robust early warning systems, nature-based solutions, more resilient infrastructure (e.g. off-grid energy and alternative water supplies), gender-responsive adaptation and, perhaps most importantly, global cooperation.